Tuesday January 16 2018

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn made a surprise announcement that some political prisoners, of whom human rights groups say there are thousands, will be released. PHOTO | AFP

In Summary
Ethiopia says its economic future needs the dam, Africa’s largest, and that it will provide it and Sudan with much needed electricity.

By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO
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If you are not a fan of big power politics, you probably missed the story a few days ago, alleging that “in co-ordination with the United Arab Emirates, Egyptian forces arrived in Eritrea”.
The story was broken by Al Sharq, a pro-government daily newspaper published in Doha, Qatar.
Al Sharq alleged that the forces were armed with modern technology and heavy armoured vehicles. Egypt last year denied reports that it had plans to establish a base in Eritrea, and possibly in Djibouti, with 20,000 to 30,000 soldiers.
A follow-up story in the London-based Middle East Monitor, suggested that the military presence in Eritrea “may be a response to Sudan allowing Turkey to take over Suakin Island in Sudan temporarily last year, as part of a broader Turkish engagement policy in Africa. Suakin was once Sudan’s largest port and was governed by the Ottoman Empire but has fallen into disuse since the creation of Port Sudan…60 kilometres to the north”.
Quoting diplomatic sources, Al Sharq reported that Turkey is planning to build a military base on Suakin Island. Commenting on Turkey’s growing geopolitical footprint, it noted that Ankara opened a military base in Somalia last year.
Relations between the UAE, Egypt and Sudan have been strained as a result of Turkey’s moves in Suakin, reports said.
One potentially explosive aspect of these movements, the Middle East Monitor reported, was that it could lead to a face-off between Ethiopia and Egypt.
In the past few years, Egypt has actively been opposing Ethiopia’s giant Renaissance Dam. Cairo argues that the dam will harm its access to 55.5 billion cubic metres of River Nile water. Ethiopia says its economic future needs the dam, Africa’s largest, and that it will provide it and Sudan with much needed electricity.
National security in Egypt have been pushing for military action to stop construction of the dam, which is located 15 kilometres east of the Ethiopia-Sudan border.
If Egypt has troops in Eritrea now, a country it is still technically at war with over their border, it means Cairo has the ability to easily destroy the dam, and its threats of military action no longer sound hollow.
On social media, some commentators have argued that it is probably no coincidence that last week Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn made a surprise announcement that some political prisoners, of whom human rights groups say there are thousands, will be released in order to “widen the democratic space for all.”
Hailemariam also said the Mae’kelawi prison, notorious for torture, will also be closed.
Faced with protests and growing insurgencies in its Oromo and Amhara regions, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) would be well-served by softening the ham-fisted ways that have helped it keep a firm grip on power.
When you have your two most populous regions in a restive mood, and jails overflowing with political prisoners, you are unlikely to win a war against a formidable military adversary like Egypt.
There’s a view that the fast changing situation in the Horn might finally drive Ethiopia to seek protection inside the East African Community, turning the EAC into a Nile River military compact.
2018, then, might just be the year that finally remakes East Africa and the Horn.
Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher of data visualiser Africapaedia and Rogue Chiefs. Twitter@cobbo3

Source – The East African